Violence in Oromia has intensified recently, involving OLA and government forces, but increasingly also 'self-help' groups of Amhara minorities, with alleged support from ‘Fano’ militias from Amhara region. Although exact numbers are hard to ascertain, the violence has killed hundreds and displaced tens of thousands of civilians.
- Humanitarian needs will worsen in large parts of Oromia, with both government and international aid providers facing operational hurdles.
- Insecurity will disrupt movements of people and trade, especially from Amhara and parts of Oromia to Addis Ababa, and accelerate inflation.
- Abiy may seek to use a recently announced anti-corruption drive to target some Oromo officials accused of sympathising with the OLA.
- The unrest may undermine government efforts to enhance international diplomatic and investor confidence following the Tigray peace deal.