Azerbaijan is increasing pressure on Karabakh and Armenia. Azerbaijani environmentalists blocked the only road connecting Armenia with Karabakh on December 12, just days after similar disruptions on December 3. The cancellation of an EU-hosted meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders further suggests that Baku favours coercion over negotiation.
- Despite widespread anger at perceived government weakness, the Armenian opposition is proving unable to mount an effective challenge.
- Azerbaijan may build a concerted economic blockade of Karabakh if it calculates that Russia will not act to stop it.
- Iran will oppose any territorial changes that disrupt its land connection with Armenia.