A ceasefire agreed in November 2020 collapsed in August this year. The fighting has important ramifications not only for civilians currently living in the area but also for the more than 1 million Rohingya who reside in Bangladeshi refugee camps, having fled previous bouts of violence in Rakhine.
- The pause in fighting may allow the military to refocus its forces elsewhere, although that could leave it stretched thin.
- With the end of the monsoon season, more Rohingya in Myanmar and Bangladesh may attempt dangerous boat journeys to maritime South-east Asia.
- China and India will seek to influence the conflicting parties to advance their geostrategic interests in Rakhine.