Italy’s budget for next year reflects fiscal caution

Significance

The government proposes a moderate increase in spending, largely funded by better-than-expected GDP growth. Rome has committed to the previous government's fiscal consolidation path. However, its proposals on welfare, pensions and tax are opposed by opposition parties and big business.

Impacts

• Significant reforms such as increasing the retirement age are unlikely under the current government.
• The government is unlikely to resist reforms tied to the EU recovery fund over the next year, at least.
• Conflict between Brussels and Rome is most likely to occur over immigration policy.