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War and sanctions will hit Russian consumer spending

Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Significance

The cost will increase pressure on households already experiencing declining real incomes and worrying about the military mobilisation which the government says has taken 300,000 men out of civilian employment to fight in Ukraine. The average consumer is spending less at a time when domestic demand is crucial to an economy suffering a downturn in export revenue.

Impacts

  • Weak household demand will relieve inflationary pressures in 2023.
  • Stricter criteria for issuing consumer loans will limit credit availability.
  • The hoped-for switch to Russian-made goods will take time and will be difficult for items such as mobile phones, computers and cars.
  • The need to consolidate budget spending will restrict the government's capacity for social transfers.

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