The US government has named Kazakhstan and many other countries as routes by which sanctioned goods have reached Russia, but has refrained from hitting them with secondary sanctions. Unusual spikes in trade are helpful in identifying which countries are re-exporting goods to Russia.
- Once EU and UK crude embargoes kick in on December 5, Russia will become more reliant on shady trading firms to sell oil on the grey market.
- China will continue helping Russia in the face of stricter sanctions but will avoid antagonising the United States.
- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will look like an attractive haven for wealthy Russians.