Wagner will not help contain jihadists in Mali

Significance

Their presence has made little dent in jihadist activities there. Jama‘at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (JNIM), an affiliate of al-Qaida, is increasingly focusing on Wagner. Meanwhile, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) has achieved considerable momentum in the north-eastern Menaka and Gao Regions, exposing Wagner’s inefficacy but also highlighting the deep divisions among ISGS’s opponents.

Impacts

• Wagner’s lack of results, and the reportedly domineering and aggressive tone of its personnel, could cause tensions with the Malian army.
• Malian authorities’ difficulties in meeting contractual payment obligations could also alienate Wagner.
• Failures in Mali could blunt appetite in neighbouring Burkina Faso for greater Russian involvement there.
• If a broad anti-ISGS coalition comes together, JNIM will likely benefit.