Turkey’s 2023 elections will drive Greek relations

Significance

Just after the missile was tested on October 18 in a launch over the Black Sea, Erdogan said it was a “message” to Turkey’s adversaries. The Tayfun's 560-kilometre range, twice that of other Turkish missiles, places Athens within reach, a fact taken note of in Greece.

Impacts

• Attention will shift away from managing domestic, economic, social and energy crises in Turkey and Greece as both arm themselves.
• Turkish officials’ more aggressive rhetoric and threats to Greek sovereignty will prompt EU member states to close ranks around Greece.
• EU-Turkey relations will be further strained, at a time when they need repair to help manage the Ukraine and migration crises.