Odinga’s challenge creates Kenya election uncertainty

Significance

The results were immediately rejected by his main rival, Raila Odinga, and his Azimio alliance. The margin of victory is narrow, at just over 200,000 votes among the 14 million cast. Four of the seven IEBC commissioners have refused to acknowledge Ruto's victory.

Impacts

• The fact that four election commissioners broke ranks and questioned the results will further undermine the IEBC's reputation.
• The controversy increases the risk of unrest, although public appetite for mass protests appears much lower than in 2007 or 2017.
• A re-run election would place great strain on the IEBC and create further political and economic disruption.