Multi-ethnic coalitions lower Kenya poll violence risk

Significance

However, several factors may reduce the risk of violence.

Impacts

• Prolonged protests will deter tourism and have a negative, albeit modest, impact on economic growth.
• A poll dispute may prompt a deal to co-opt the loser in return for stability, creating a bloated government and weak opposition.
• Unrest in Ruto’s Rift Valley base may disrupt supply chains to Uganda or South Sudan; unrest in Odinga’s heartland may impact Mombasa port.
• Any election-related unrest could exacerbate fuel and food price inflation.