Kaliningrad upset warns Lithuania against recklessness

Significance

Lithuania announced in June that it was applying EU sanctions to goods going by rail across its territory to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Moscow complained that this violated a November 2002 agreement on railway transit. Vilnius appears to have exceeded the EU sanctions regime in its eagerness to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Impacts

• The transit issue looks like more foreign policy failure after the Taipei office debacle and sanctions delays against Belarus fertilisers.
• Russia is an unpredictable and dangerous neighbour capable of inflicting damage short of levels that trigger NATO intervention.
• If Russia becomses more overtly hostile, Lithuania will take security more seriously and increase readiness.