Libya oil leadership change will be contested

Significance

Sanalla has repeatedly clashed with Oil Minister Mohamed Aoun but the trigger for efforts to oust him is a weakening in the power of GNU Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeiba, who wants to reach a new accommodation with eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar by making a change at the NOC. This has alarmed international oil companies and diplomats.

Impacts

• International oil companies prioritise continuity in a sector already vulnerable to political upsets, so will likely back Sanalla.
• The Haftar-aligned camp has a strained relationship with Sanalla and will welcome his removal, especially if his successor is an ally.
• If Sanalla is replaced, issues such as reform of the Petroleum Facilities Guard and better community engagement may receive less attention.