Political instability in Italy looks set to deepen

Significance

Conflict between the FdI and League, in particular, threatens to undermine the League’s support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government and both parties' prospects of forming a government after the 2023 election.

Impacts

• The Ukraine war will likely undermine Italy’s economic recovery from COVID-19 and potentially the implementation of associated reforms.
• The rise of irregular migration flows from North Africa would further boost the right’s electoral prospects.
• In government, FdI would likely pursue European defence cooperation through NATO rather than EU defence and security structures.