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China's arms exports will expand over the long term

Thursday, June 30, 2022

Significance

China is unlikely to absorb all the market share that Russia will lose due to the Ukraine war and sanctions, and the future of its defence sector collaboration with Russia is uncertain.

Impacts

  • Chinese firms will likely gain some arms export contracts at Russia’s expense, but not necessarily more than Western exporters.
  • As China pushes ahead with new technologies and military applications, Western arms exporters will face more competition in third markets.
  • China will face more export controls and other constraints on importing advanced technologies that could assist its military capabilities.

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