Shifting priorities will favour Venezuela's Maduro

Significance

Going into a new round of dialogue with domestic opponents, the government has been buoyed by shifting regional political tides, a fractious anti-government movement and changing global energy markets. Absent meaningful efforts by Washington to improve bilateral relations, President Nicolas Maduro will accelerate the anchoring of foreign and commercial policy to non-Western partners.

Impacts

• The United States has limited tools to influence political developments in Venezuela, despite the severity of the sanctions regime.
• Opposition leader Juan Guaido has been further weakened by regional political changes.
• European energy woes will increase pressure to ease oil sanctions from countries seeking alternatives to Russian oil.