Thai politics will be increasingly stormy

Significance

In May, the military-linked Phalang Pracharat Party, which supported Prayut’s 2019 transition from junta leader to civilian premier, performed poorly in Bangkok city elections. The next general election is due in 2023, but speculation has grown recently that Prayut may bring it forward to this year in a bid to secure another term as premier.

Impacts

• The increasing likelihood of a large poll victory for the opposition Pheu Thai Party raises the risk of a pre-election military coup.
• Chadchart Sittipunt’s victory in the Bangkok gubernatorial election makes him a contender to be a Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate.
• Pheu Thai cannot realistically expect to secure the premiership even if it wins the general election, given the way the constitution works.