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France is facing years of policy uncertainty

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Significance

Ensemble has 245 seats, compared with 131 for the left-wing coalition NUPES (New Popular Union for Ecology and Society), 89 for the far-right National Rally (RN) and 61 for the centre-right Republicans (LR). This greatly complicates Macron's legislative plans for his second term.

Impacts

  • Macron is constitutionally bound to wait one year before dissolving parliament and calling another legislative election.
  • The election results will complicate efforts to reform France’s majority state-owned electricity company Electricite de France (EdF).
  • Macron’s plan to implement pension reforms, and broader political instability triggered by the election, will likely fuel social unrest.
  • The influence of LR could dilute Macron’s efforts to push for ambitious reform to the EU’s fiscal rules to accommodate higher spending.

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