Iraq’s hydrocarbon prospects at risk from politics

Significance

Resurgent interest from international oil companies (IOCs) in upstream investment offers an opportunity to accelerate development of Iraq’s underexploited oil and gas reserves but provisional deals with TotalEnergies and Chevron are currently blocked. Moreover, a Federal Supreme Court ruling has reignited tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the oil sector in the semi-autonomous north.

Impacts

• The dispute over oil rights between the federal and Kurdish authorities will die down once a new government is in place.
• Investment by wealthy Gulf allies in gas and renewables will be conditional on limits on the degree of Iranian influence in Baghdad.
• Political instability, endemic corruption and stifling bureaucracy will limit IOC investment, despite the low cost of oil extraction.