Menaka fighting shows the limits of the Malian state

Significance

The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) appears to have the upper hand in its struggle against a coalition comprising two pro-government militias and the Armed Forces of Mali (FAMa) in the wake of France's drawdown in Mali and regionally.

Impacts

• The fighting in Menaka has contributed to another wave of displacements in a region already beset by severe food insecurity.
• Violence and displaced people will likely spill over into Niger, adding pressure on a population already on the brink of starvation.
• The rising violence may undermine the popularity of Sahelian military juntas.