Russia cannot expect Central Asian backing for war

Significance

Russia's invasion of Ukraine places Central Asian governments in an awkward position. They are economically dependent on Russia and vulnerable to President Vladimir Putin's imperial ambitions. They cannot make the Kremlin an enemy, but the war is not in their interests and they have no intention of being isolated together with Russia.

Impacts

• Despite upholding sanctions rules, Kazakhstan may allow Russian firms to relocate there, as the Urals motorcycle manufacturer has done.
• Kyrgyzstan will struggle to attract investors: Chinese firms are unpopular and the Kumtor mine nationalisation will deter Western investors
• Turkmenistan is so isolated that it is less exposed to Russia; its economy is in crisis, but the war will not make this worse.