Ethiopia’s Amhara crackdown is calculated but risky

Significance

Thousands of people have been detained, including General Tefera Mamo, a former commander of Amhara regional special forces who was removed from that post in February. The crackdown is driven by rising concern over the growing power and belligerence of Amhara armed groups, which increasingly pose a direct challenge to government power.

Impacts

• The crackdown may deepen fissures within the Amhara branch of the ruling party and the main opposition National Movement of Amhara.
• Instability may undermine preparations for the farming season when the region already faces shortages of food and agricultural inputs.
• Accelerating detentions of critical activists and journalists will reinforce the government’s authoritarian turn.