US policy shift on Cuba will bring little respite

Significance

The move comes as Cubans face a severe economic crisis and increasing hardship that is driving record outward migration. The collapse of Russian tourism and increased fuel and food prices have further dampened already weak prospects, amid struggles with inflation, shortages and social frustration.

Impacts

• The government’s 4% growth forecast for 2022 looks optimistic; recession is quite possible.
• Tourism, Cuba’s main industry, faces a slow recovery, visitor numbers will be well below the 2.5 million projected for this year.
• War in Ukraine reduces hope of relief from Moscow, making domestic reform even more necessary.
• US midterms and Florida gubernatorial elections scheduled for November will make further US policy changes on Cuba unlikely.