Croatia’s political feud has foreign policy fallouts

Significance

Milanovic is waging a battle for power with the Croatian government and opposes sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. This dispute will further complicate Croatia’s decision-making on foreign policy issues, while populist opposition parties will use Milanovic to challenge the government.

Impacts

• Like Milanovic, Turkey's Erdogan is trying to leverage the recent NATO bids to extract concessions from the West.
• Finnish and Swedish NATO accession will remain a top priority for Western leaders, constraining Milanovic’s ability to act on his threats.
• Despite Milanovic’s lack of explicit condemnation of Russia’s invasion, relations between Croatia and Ukraine will remain strong.
• Poor cooperation between the government and the president will not damage Croatia on its path towards the Schengen area and euro adoption.