Russian gas cut-off spurs Balkans to diversify

Significance

The product of years of efforts, the terminal will now help Balkan governments deal with the interruption of Russian gas deliveries and accelerate diversification. Bulgaria, cut off by Russia in late April, is a small consumer and so can secure alternatives relatively easily.

Impacts

• Russia will lose market share to competitors favoured by regional governments for commercial and political reasons.
• Enhanced interconnectivity will boost cross-border market integration, particularly between Greece and Bulgaria.
• A cut-off of Russian gas to Greece would complicate supply to Bulgaria and make a deal on joint gas purchases pressing.
• Serbia will emerge as Gazprom’s main customer in the Balkans but it will keep its longer-term options open.