War in Ukraine will lend timid boost to EU enlargement

Significance

The Ukraine crisis could give a spur to EU enlargement following years of near-stagnation. However, the immediate implications for the Western Balkans, whose accession has been progressing very slowly, are not clear.

Impacts

• The EU will increase its financial and military assistance to Ukraine, including a new sanctions package against Russia.
• A ‘green light’ to start accession negotiations for North Macedonia and Albania are likelier if Macron is re-elected French president.
• The EU will put more pressure on Serbia to align with its foreign policy.