Armenia-Azerbaijan deal starts looking possible

Significance

Pashinyan appears to be considering a proposal to withdraw support for a separate Karabakh state and recognise it as Azerbaijani territory. After Pashinyan met Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Brussels on April 6, European Council head Charles Michel said they agreed to "move rapidly toward a peace agreement".

Impacts

• A mix of military incursions and diplomacy suggests Azerbaijan is acting while Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine.
• Plans for an Azerbaijani corridor through Armenia look more realistic.
• Iran is in danger of being shut out by other powers in the South Caucasus.