Morocco fertiliser windfall will offer limited comfort

Significance

However, Morocco will also face steep increases in the costs of importing fuel and cereals, which will also push up inflation. The windfall gains from increased phosphate and fertiliser exports will not be enough to insulate Morocco from the surge in global commodity prices.

Impacts

• Trade and perhaps investment will have to be reconfigured to cover for the loss of Russian and Ukrainian ammonia supply to OCP.
• Economic growth will be held back by a poor agricultural season and the continued struggles in the tourism sector.
• Higher inflation will aggravate social tensions and the authorities' instinct will be to respond repressively.