Middle East and North Africa wheat supply challenges

Significance

The war in Ukraine threatens supply of important commodities to the Middle East and North Africa. The region is highly reliant on Russia and Ukraine for wheat and barley, with Egypt and Lebanon particularly dependent.

Impacts

• Current account balances of the non-oil exporting countries will come under pressure because of rising import costs.
• Regional horticultural exporters will be pressured by the higher cost of fertilisers.
• Rising oil prices will add a further layer of stress to government and household budgets in the region.