Like-minded leaders may improve Bolivia-Chile ties

Significance

This opens up the possibility of renewed diplomatic relations and closer cooperation between these estranged neighbours, despite ongoing Bolivian frustrations over access to the sea and a dispute over cross-border water flows, currently being considered at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Impacts

• No Bolivian government can afford to relinquish the goal of regaining access to the Pacific.
• Sympathy for the Bolivian aspiration will not come to be shared by the majority of Chileans.
• Steps may be taken to smooth the passage of Bolivian goods through Arica.
• A Silala settlement could ease cooperation on more general management of binational basins in a context of ever greater water shortage.
• A need for bilateral cooperation in managing undocumented (mostly Venezuelan) migration could further facilitate a strengthening of ties.