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Rival governments are set to destabilise Libya

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Significance

UN mediation seeks to reconcile the long-divided parliamentary chambers, the House of Representatives (HoR; lower house) and the High Council of State (HCS; upper). The HCS backs the existing, Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) under Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeiba; the HoR recognises a new cabinet under former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha.

Impacts

  • Oil stoppages are among the few meaningful weapons available to Khalifa Haftar’s faction and the Bashagha administration.
  • Egypt’s strong support for Bashagha’s government is likely to place strain on its rapprochement with Turkey.
  • Russia’s support for Bashagha will place European state such as France in a difficult position.
  • New international alliances around Libya may emerge as European states are pushed into working with Turkey to minimise Russian influence.

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