Expanded French role in West Africa faces risks

Significance

Though details remain to be decided, a joint declaration made the same day by France and its European, Canadian and African partners has set a June 2022 deadline for devising terms for "shared action.”

Impacts

• Regional coordination may be stymied by distrust between partner forces, especially Benin and Burkina Faso.
• The ability of jihadist groups to establish localised insurgencies will depend on local conditions within vulnerable states.
• Large influxes of security assistance may increase the regional coup risk.