Mauritania will tread carefully on Mali and reforms

Significance

President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani has given Mali a trade route to the Atlantic following the imposition of heavy trade and financial sanctions by West Africa. However, he is under pressure to adopt a tougher line against Bamako and faces domestic challenges as the opposition starts to mobilise on key governance and socio-economic issues.

Impacts

• Maintaining its Mauritanian trade route should enable Mali to avoid a humanitarian crisis.
• The upcoming trial of the former president will test the level of residual support he enjoys in political circles.
• Ghazouani will sustain his consensual style of government in the face of more critical opposition.
• The challenge of rising global wheat prices will be mitigated by the government’s domestic food security plans.