Somalia faces political and security transition risks

Significance

Meanwhile, the government and African Union (AU) have been discussing parameters for a successor mission to the longstanding AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). As such, the next 90 days may have a significant impact on Somalia's likely trajectory for the next four years.

Impacts

• The revised March 15 deadline to complete elections will almost certainly be missed.
• Washington may explore further sanctions if elections face further delays.
• AMISOM’s successor risks starting out with objectives it is ill-equipped to deliver on.