Ukraine invasion may affect Russia’s Balkan influence

Significance

Eufor is activating about 500 of its reserves in case the deteriorating international situation spreads to BiH. The announcement came the same day that Russia launched its assault on Ukraine. The EU-led peacekeeping force will rise to about 1,100 troops, with further reserves available if needed.

Impacts

• Bosnian Serb and Croat threats to break up BiH can be expected to elicit a Bosnian Muslim (Bosniak) response, including violence.
• Croatian plans to develop the Russian tourist market are now likely to be on hold.
• The crisis will affect grain supplies from Russia and Ukraine, on which Albania, for one, depends for half its imports.