Tourism-reliant economies’ business models will evolve

Significance

Highly tourist-dependent states in the Global South have suffered dramatic falls in GDP as a result. However, the impact has varied and it is notable that relatively high levels of income and vaccination offered litttle economic protection. This matters greatly because many in the industry do not expect a recovery to 2019 levels until 2024.

Impacts

• Some small tourism-reliant states share Global North prosperity and vaccination rates but suffer from Global South structural fragilities.
• Some of the tourism-reliant Global South nations proved resilient to the specific shock of COVID-19 but remain vulnerable to other shocks.
• ‘Build-back-better’ narratives will be founded on diversification and proactiveness in partnerships with various tourism stakeholders.
• Divergence of border closures and restrictions will make the rebound regionally very uneven, and the effects of this could be long-lasting.