AGOA exclusion adds to economic pressure on Ethiopia

Significance

This adds to the bad economic news for the country, which recently had to postpone its second telecoms licensing round, is still waiting to restructure its foreign debt and faces huge reconstruction costs in conflict-affected areas.

Impacts

• Foreign companies that have evacuated personnel, let alone tourists, may be slow to return until the security situation improves markedly.
• A debt restructuring deal should be reached this year, easing fiscal pressure after the end of the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative.
• Ethiopia’s AGOA exclusion is not up for review again until 2023, and could even be extended absent real improvement in the situation.