Ukraine politics self-obsessed as Russian army waits

Significance

Poroshenko was travelling abroad last month when he became a suspect in a treason case relating to events seven years ago. He is the second powerful figure, after businessman Rinat Ahmetov, to fall foul of President Volodymyr Zelensky's administration in recent months. The Zelensky team's preoccupation with domestic opponents comes despite ongoing talk of possible invasion by a large Russian force massed on Ukraine's borders.

Impacts

• Any attempt to detain Poroshenko will be resisted by his supporters, who may stage protests.
• Prosecuting Poroshenko may improve Zelensky's ratings, but only in the short term.
• Attacks on opponents should not greatly affect the administration's relations with the West, which has other priorities.