Russian leverage in South-east Asia will grow modestly

Significance

South-east Asia provides the Kremlin opportunities to advance its ‘great power’ interests. Meanwhile, the region remains a key theatre for the United States and China to play out their growing rivalry.

Impacts

• Russia may try to sell nuclear power plants to the region, although it would face strong competition from other countries.
• Military action by Russia against Ukraine would hurt Moscow’s image in South-east Asia but no regional state would respond with sanctions.
• Russia-China relations will strengthen but the two countries will stop short of agreeing a formal political-military alliance.