Ukrainian officials downplay Russian invasion fears

Significance

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on November 29 called for action "now, not later" to "deter" Russia. The same day, US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby said the Pentagon was watching Russian troop movements near Ukraine "with great concern". Fears of imminent conflict stem not just from the number of troops and tanks moved closer to Ukraine, but from Moscow's more than usually hostile rhetoric and its deliberate ambiguity, through hints that Ukraine may provoke it into some form of action.

Impacts

• The threat of Russian action will accelerate and expand the defence assistance Ukraine gets from the United States and other NATO members.
• Moscow would hope its importance as a gas supplier mitigates EU sanctions imposed for military action against Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian government will be tempted to use the Russian threat to curb domestic opposition.