China will not rush Iran back to the nuclear deal

Significance

Hopes of swift progress are low, as Iran has outlined a maximalist position including demands for impossible US guarantees that no future president will again renege on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In the absence of US-Iran direct talks, mediation by the other signatories, including China, is key.

Impacts

• Only if Iran pulled out of the JCPOA talks altogether might China step up its mediation effort to avoid the risk of military escalation.
• The long-term sustainability for Tehran of the system whereby it sells highly discounted oil to China is doubtful.
• Increased Chinese imports of Iranian oil via third countries such as Malaysia could undermine the credibility of US sanctions enforcement.