Washington will rethink its foreign chip strategy

Significance

Follow-on action from Washington and responses from foreign actors will shape the US government’s adversarial policy towards China in semiconductors and other strategic technologies.

Impacts

• The Biden administration will likely conclude that broad-based diversion of the semiconductor supply chain away from China is not feasible.
• The United States will rely on export controls and political pressure to prevent diffusion to China of cutting-edge chip technologies.
• The United States will focus on persuading foreign semiconductor leaders to help develop US capabilities, thereby staying ahead of China.
• Washington will focus on less direct approaches to strategic technology competition with China, notably technical standards-setting.
• Industry leaders in the semiconductor supply chain worldwide will continue expanding business in China in less politically sensitive areas.