Beirut’s internal and external pressures will mount

Significance

As a new crisis in relations with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states intensifies and internal sectarian tensions mount, compromise Prime Minister Najib Mikati is pushing ahead with IMF talks that might allow an emergency aid package, as well as plans for elections next year.

Impacts

• If the Gulf countries permanently abandon Lebanon, it will become more financially dependent on Iranian trade and aid.
• An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear installations would likely draw Hezbollah fire, but full-scale military confrontation remains unlikely.
• If the Beirut blast investigation is fully stopped, key groups will call for mass demonstrations that could again turn violent.