Debates over Irish unification will gain traction

Significance

The differing perspectives of unionists and nationalists on the creation of Northern Ireland as a political entity within the United Kingdom, together with Brexit and tensions over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), have brought the contentious issue of Irish reunification onto the political agenda in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.

Impacts

• Scottish independence would likely increase momentum for a referendum on Irish unity.
• Successful implementation of the NIP, giving firms access to EU and UK markets, may support arguments for maintaining the status quo.
• If the UK government abandons the NIP, the adverse trade impact on Northern Irish firms could increase support for unification.