China could seize Taiwan's outlying islands

Significance

They are difficult to defend and therefore a tempting target. Beijing might try to seize them as a way to frighten and demoralise Taiwan's government or as preparation for an assault on Taiwan itself.

Impacts

• A successful attack might embolden China to seize islands claimed by Japan and South-east Asian states.
• Western sanctions imposed in response to such an attack would be significantly more aggressive than those related to Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
• Japan would take the possibility of war with China more seriously and strengthen its defence capabilities more vigorously.
• A weak US response would shake Seoul's confidence in US protection and could make South Korea more likely to develop nuclear weapons.