Social tensions will worsen in Nigeria banditry crisis

Significance

This is part of an escalating crisis of insecurity in the region which has seen hundreds of kidnappings -- particularly of schoolchildren -- by armed bandits looking for ransom. The crisis is helping to fuel wider social divisions within the country.

Impacts

• Different bandit groups will increase cooperation in the near-term, though tensions among them will persist.
• Any jihadist influx will be limited and will not significantly alter conflict dynamics in the medium term.
• The humanitarian and socio-economic crisis in the north-west will be exacerbated as bandits increasingly demand foodstuffs and fuel.