Gulf-Iran diplomatic breakthroughs will be piecemeal

Significance

He declined to confirm reports of a Saudi visit preparing to reopen diplomatic facilities closed in 2016, pending further progress. A fourth round of negotiations between Saudi and Iranian officials convened in September in the aftermath of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership which gathered regional leaders on August 28.

Impacts

• Discounting the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran nuclear relations, regional officials will act more independently.
• Developments in Yemen are likely to undermine the Saudi-Emirati conviction that the Huthis are merely a proxy beholden to Iran.
• Foreign policy drift in the Biden administration may intensify as US political energy turns toward the 2022 congressional midterm elections.