China tensions will obstruct regional FTA expansion

Significance

China’s entry would be a game-changer. Its economy is larger than all the current CPTPP members' combined, and Beijing would gain another platform for implementing its policies on trade, investment, economic cooperation and regional development.

Impacts

• Enlargement can significantly enhance the partnership’s economic effect for its member nations.
• Expansion prospects increase the incentive for other nations to apply, such as South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
• Washington will be involved indirectly, influencing how China's application is handled and buffering pressure vis-a-vis Taiwan.