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Demobilisation will be a long-term challenge in Libya

Thursday, October 14, 2021

Significance

Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable.

Impacts

  • Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term.
  • Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities.
  • The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.
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