Unsettled Libyan politics may fuel violence in Tripoli

Significance

The violence is indicative of growing friction between local Tripolitanian militias under the influence of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and forces now loyal to the Government of National Unity (GNU), which in 2019 rallied from across western Libya to defend the capital from eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s siege.

Impacts

• This is a last-ditch act by the UAE’s only remaining military assets in western Libya, and could provoke conflict with Turkish proxies.
• Violence involving Turkish-backed forces would refocus European attention on Ankara’s role in Libya and reignite pressure for a withdrawal.
• Renewed violence would end a recent economic revival in Tripoli, created by a period of peace and many reconstruction contracts.