Philippine-US alliance will strengthen

Significance

In July, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte decided to retain the Philippine-US Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), having in 2020 mandated its termination. Duterte’s single, six-year term ends next June, but he says he will run for vice president in May’s elections.

Impacts

• Talks between ASEAN and China over a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea are unlikely to be concluded until 2022 at the earliest.
• Investment deals between Beijing and Manila will not yield notable improvement in Philippine infrastructure before Duterte leaves office.
• The pandemic-hit Philippine economy should continue to recover despite the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.